Fightnomics: The Hidden Numbers in Mixed Martial Arts and Why There’s No Such Thing as a Fair Fight by Reed Kuhn & Kelly Crigger

Author:Reed Kuhn & Kelly Crigger [Kuhn, Reed & Crigger, Kelly]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: Business & Money, Management & Leadership, Planning & Forecasting, Sports & Outdoors, Individual Sports, Martial Arts, Mixed Martial Arts
Amazon: B00H7D4JPK
Goodreads: 20497040
Publisher: Graybeard Publishing
Published: 2013-12-09T05:00:00+00:00

Performance Metric

Southpaw

Fighter

Southpaw

Fighters

Orthodox

Fighters

Orthodox

Fighters

Distance Head Jab Accuracy

28%

31%

27%

27%

Distance Power Head Accuracy

24%

26%

22%

25%

Distance Head Power Share

46%

55%

58%

50%

Knockdown Rate

2.7%

3.0%

2.9%

3.7%

Total Standing Attempts/Min

6.3

4.9

4.7

5.4

Takedown Success Rate

33%

41%

38%

41%

Ground Advances per Takedown

1.01

1.10

0.89

0.99

The trick to this theory is that it’s not about southpaws being better fighters per se; it’s that orthodox fighters tight worse when they face the rare southpaw stance. By that rationale, we should see a drop in performance from orthodox fighters from when they face same-stance peers to when they face southpaws, and that’s what this analysis shows. The far right column is a benchmark for how orthodox fighters perform when they compete against each other. Moving one column to the left shows how they perform against southpaws, with a drop-off in most metrics. Notably, striking volume and accuracy both drop, knockdown rate plummets, takedowns are less successful, and when fighters are on the ground they advance position less frequently. While the “why” of the advantage remains debatable, we are clearly seeing the “how” of southpaws outperforming opponents in numerous ways, mainly because those opponents seem to be off their game.

A few nuances in this analysis are also revealed. Look at striking attempts per minute and the power head share metrics. When there’s a southpaw versus orthodox matchup, both fighters are more hesitant to engage. Specifically, they use fewer jabs, meaning the portion of power head strikes rises. The awkwardness of a mismatched stance apparently results in fewer overall strikes, but more use of the power hand. In the end the southpaws attempted more strikes, landed more often, and were more active on the ground, which could all support the boost we see in their overall win rate.

The cherry on top of the southpaw advantage is that it’s so real that southpaw fighters themselves also succumb to it. Bolded and italicized, because that was a major knowledge bomb in a book full of knowledge bombs. See how the metrics for southpaws in a mixed stance fight decline when southpaws face each other? When southpaws get a surprise by facing another southpaw fighter, they are in a natural fighting stance pairing, which like orthodox versus orthodox matchups result in more engagement and more use of the jab. However, southpaws find it harder to land their strikes on other southpaws, have lower knockdown rates, and have more trouble landing takedowns and passing guard. All this means that no one does his best when they facing a southpaw, not even a southpaw.

Out of the groupings studied, fighters in pure stance matchups end up with the closest scores to each other. Basically, left-handers and right-handers when facing their own stance peers performed very similarly in striking accuracy and ground advances, but it was the orthodox fighters who had the highest knockdown rate. Because these groups are not corrected for weight class distribution as with the mixed stance matchup groups, it’s tough to say if there’s really any difference at all. But this one additional look at the numbers says that neither group of athletes is inherently better than the other, the difference only materializes when they compete directly against each other.

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